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International Attitudes Toward the U.S., NATO and Russia in a Time of Crisis

June 22, 2022

This Pew Research Center analysis focuses on public opinion of the United States, Russia and NATO in 17 countries in North America, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. The report draws on nationally representative surveys of 19,903 adults from Feb. 14 to May 11, 2022. All surveys were conducted over the phone with adults in Canada, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea. Surveys were conducted face to face in Poland and Israel and online in Australia.Data collection began a week prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Japan. All other countries began fieldwork the same day as or shortly after the invasion. Due to the time it takes to translate, program and test questions on our international surveys, we prioritized gathering data at the start of this significant international event rather than delaying, or pausing, fieldwork to add questions specifically about the war or the actions taken by world leaders in response. Analysis focuses on ratings of Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, the countries they lead and NATO as the war in Ukraine was unfolding. In this report, the data is discussed in the context of over a decade of cross-national trends.Views of Russia and NATO also include data from the United States. We surveyed 3,581 U.S. adults from March 21 to 27, 2022, after the start of the war in Ukraine. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center's American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories.

Interim security insights and implications from the first two months of the Russia-Ukraine war

May 12, 2022

Russia's ongoing struggles during its invasion of Ukraine have led some to suggest that the Russian military lacks the capability to credibly threaten the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its member states. However, narrowly focusing on Russia's tactical and operational struggles, while omitting the flawed Russian strategic decisionmaking which underpinned the invasion, is a dangerous approach. While Russia's significant losses in this war will clearly degrade its ability to conduct large scale offensive operations against NATO in the short term, it is too soon to write off the medium to long-term threat posed by Russia. Therefore, as the Russian invasion enters a new phase, it is useful to determine what lessons should and should not be derived from this conflict. In our subsequent analysis, we analyze these initial insights and provide policy recommendations for NATO to enhance its conventional capability and strengthen its ability to credibly deter future Russian aggression.

Americans’ Concerns About War in Ukraine: Wider Conflict, Possible U.S.-Russia Clash

May 10, 2022

Pew Research Center conducted this study to better understand Americans' attitudes about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as the Biden administration's response to the invasion. For this analysis, we surveyed 5,074 U.S. adults in May 2022. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center's American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories.

How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Affecting Global Agricultural Markets

May 2, 2022

The war in Ukraine has roiled commodity markets and raised concerns about global food security. Ongoing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors had already driven up food prices before Russia's invasion. Poor harvests in South America, strong global demand, and supply-chain issues reduced grain and oilseed inventories, driving prices to their highest levels since 2011–13. Vegetable oil prices have also been at record levels, reflecting a short South American soybean crop, reduced palm oil supplies due to harvest problems in Malaysia, and sharply increased use of palm and soybean oil for biodiesel production. Prices of key energy-intensive inputs such as fuel, fertilizer, and pesticides have also been at near-record levels.Russia's invasion of Ukraine will further disrupt global markets, hurt global grain supplies in the short term, and, by disrupting natural gas and fertilizer markets, negatively affect producers as they enter a new planting season. This could further increase already high food prices and have serious consequences for low-income net food–importing countries, many of which have seen an increase in malnourishment rates3 over the past few years in the face of pandemic disruptions.

Zelenskyy inspires widespread confidence from U.S. public as views of Putin hit new low

March 30, 2022

Weeks after Russia invaded his country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy draws overwhelmingly positive ratings from the American public for his handling of international affairs. Around seven-in-ten Americans (72%) have a lot or some confidence in Zelenskyy, higher than any other international leader asked about in a new Pew Research Center survey.

Seeking Accountability and Justice for Crimes Committed in Ukraine

March 29, 2022

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a clear violation of the U.N. Charter and threatens to upend the rules-based international order established after World War II. With each passing day, there are a growing number of reports of indiscriminate attacks by Russia that likely constitute war crimes. Global outcry over Russia's alleged atrocities has included war crimes accusations at the highest levels, with President Joe Biden calling Russian President Vladimir Putin "a war criminal."To ensure accountability for crimes committed—and to attempt to deter future ones—it is imperative that the international community act swiftly to pursue justice; establish accountability mechanisms where needed for those committing crimes in Ukraine, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, and the crime of aggression; and enforce penalties. While these steps are unlikely to alter Putin's current course, if Russian soldiers and lower-level leaders see that there is a unified and determined effort to ensure they will be held accountable for atrocities committed against the Ukrainian people, they may change their calculus in carrying out Putin's orders. The international community's message must be clear: Russia's acts of aggression and any human rights violations against the Ukrainian people will not go unpunished.

Crisis in Ukraine: Humanitarian and Human Rights Imperatives

March 21, 2022

The Refugees International Investigation:From March 2 through March 9, 2022, a Refugees International (RI) team traveled to Poland in the wake of the renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine. The team traveled some 600 miles in eastern Poland, visiting border crossings and reception areas in cities hosting people who had fled Ukraine. They met with refugees; members of Polish civil society; and United Nations, U.S. government, and Polish officials.The Ukraine Crisis:As a result of the Russian invasion, Ukraine is in a human rights and humanitarian crisis. About 6.48 million people are estimated to be displaced within the borders of Ukraine, and more than 3.3 million people have fled Ukraine, becoming refugees. The vast majority of refugees are women and children, who are at particular risk of trafficking, sexual exploitation, and gender-based violence. More than 2 million of the refugees are in Poland.The Global Response:The speed and breadth of the international response to the crisis has been unprecedented and generous, with the European Union, the United States, and other donor governments contributing generously to aid efforts. The EU is providing legal status and protections to people who have sought or are seeking refuge from the war in EU countries. A very welcome development, it stands in sharp contrast to European responses to refugee flight from outside the continent—but should be the norm.Refugees in Poland (And Elsewhere in the Region):In Poland and other receiving countries, the UN, EU, and other donors must support governments and civil society to meet refugees' reception and integration needs in the immediate and longer term. These include safe accommodation, medical and mental healthcare, and access to education and employment. An effective response will be grounded in local civil society organizations, investing in their capacity to scale existing services. Swiftly developing government initiatives to responsibly collect and share information about aid efforts within and across borders is necessary to strengthen protections and avoid trafficking, exploitation, and other rights abuses in the region.Unfortunately, non-Ukrainians—in particular Black and brown individuals—who have fled Ukraine have faced greater obstacles in reception and integration, with problems emerging on both sides of borders. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the EU, and other leaders have publicly urged that everyone fleeing Ukraine be allowed into the EU, regardless of race or nationality.The Humanitarian Crisis within Ukraine's Borders:Even as States take on the responsibility of welcoming refugees fleeing Ukraine—a challenge Europe can manage—they must give urgent attention to what is emerging as a far more formidable challenge: the humanitarian emergency within Ukraine. Conflict, and especially the Russian bombardment of civilian institutions and inability of civilians to flee in safety, has created an overwhelming internal crisis, exacerbating an already dire situation. Moreover, several factors suggest that the situation will become even more desperate. In particular, as the Russian military's offensive has become frustrated, it is laying siege to population centers and creating enormous suffering.War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity in Ukraine:Refugees International is persuaded that the Russian military and the Russian government are responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. They must end such abuses and must be held accountable for a broad range of widespread, indiscriminate, and what clearly appear to be cruel, deliberate, and unprovoked attacks against civilians in Ukraine and against civilian institutions.

Public Expresses Mixed Views of U.S. Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

March 15, 2022

Three weeks into Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, nearly half of Americans (47%) approve of the Biden administration's handling of the Russian invasion, while about four-in-ten (39%) disapprove; 13% say they are not sure.Roughly a third of Americans (32%) say that the United States is providing about the right amount of support to Ukraine as it fights to hold off the Russian invasion. A larger share – 42% – say the U.S. should be providing more support to Ukraine, while just 7% say it is providing too much support. About one-in-five (19%) say they are not sure.The new Pew Research Center survey, conducted March 7-13, 2022, among 10,441 U.S. adults on the Center's American Trends Panel, finds wide partisan differences in views of the administration's handling of the crisis and the level of support the U.S. has provided to Ukraine.

The Brookings Sanctions Tracker

March 14, 2022

The world's democracies are employing financial and economic countermeasures in the fight against Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. The extent of these sanctions is staggering. To analyze the scope and potential impact of these sanctions, it is essential to systematically monitor and track them—which is why we are launching the Brookings Sanctions Tracker.  Our goal is for this tracker to serve as a timely and user-friendly tool for civil society organizations, policymakers, and others who seek to analyze the current landscape of specific restrictive measures imposed against Russia (both on an individual nation basis and across the international community), generate analysis on trends and gaps, and inform recommendations on how to combat corruption, advance accountability, and defend democracy.  

Feasible US steps to strengthen NATO deterrence in the Baltics and Poland

March 10, 2022

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a renewed assessment of efforts by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to deter Russia from taking military action on NATO's eastern flank has become particularly salient. In the coming weeks, NATO leadership will meet to discuss what longer term force posture adjustments are required to create such a deterrent. This paper proposes several modest policy recommendations which will help inform the discussion and ultimately strengthen NATO's conventional deterrence posture

Ukraine Humanitarian Crisis

March 4, 2022

After months of posturing while simultaneously denying any plans to attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin's assaults on multiple cities in Ukraine began overnight on Feb. 24 and have continued day and night since then.The Center for Disaster Philanthropy's (CDP) response to this crisis is focused on humanitarian needs that arise, particularly among internally-displaced peoples (IDPs) and refugees. We are not looking at the conflict itself except in how it affects population movement and humanitarian needs. To that end, this profile is not providing detailed updates about the status of the war as we believe that is better done by news media.

Russia’s Use of Thermobaric Weapons in Ukraine

March 1, 2022

On February 28, 2022, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States confirmed that Russia had used a "vacuum bomb," killing 70 soldiers, as part of its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Two days prior, CNN reported  that Russian TOS-1 rocket launchers, which can launch up to 30 rockets armed with thermobaric warheads, were mobilized in eastern Ukraine. Thermobaric weapons have been described as the biggest non-nuclear bomb, but there is a massive leap in the destructive power to a weapon of mass destruction.

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