Learn more about the Knowledge Center Service

What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission

by Cavan Kharrazian; David Rosnick; Guillaume Long; Kevin Cashman

Nov 8, 2019

This paper presents results from statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia's October 20 elections. This analysis finds no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory. The paper presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia's vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales's first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.